| LEC # | TOPICS | ASSIGNMENTS |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Introduction | |
| 2 | Decision Analysis I - Kendall Crab and Lobster Case | Prepare Kendall Crab and Lobster Case to discuss the following questions in class: What are the choices that Jeff Daniels faces? What are the sources of uncertainty? What are the consequences of the various outcomes? What course of action would you recommend for Jeff Daniels? Please refer to these instructions (PDF). |
| 3 | Laws of Probability | |
| 4 | Decision Analysis II - Graphic Corp. Case | Analyze the Graphic Corp. Case at the end of Chapter 2. In addition to developing a strategy for Dana Meseroll, you should also perform a sensitivity analysis on the ONE piece of data that you think is the most unreliable in the problem. ANALYZE AND HAND IN YOUR CASE ANALYSIS (including sensitivity analysis.) |
| 5 | Value | |
| 6 | Discrete Probability | |
| 7 | Binomial Distribution | FIRST HOMEWORK DUE (PDF) Solutions - (PDF) |
| 8 | Portfolio Risk Management | |
| 9 | Normal Distribution | |
| 10 | Central Limit Theorem | |
| 11 | Sampling and Sample Means | SECOND HOMEWORK DUE (PDF) Solutions - (PDF) |
| 12 | Simulation | |
| 13 | Gentle Lentil Case | Read the Gentle Lentil Restaurant Case at the end of Chapter 5 and prepare answers to the questions at the end of the case. If possible, build the Crystal Ball simulation model, but do not devote an inordinate amount of effort. You are not required to have completed the simulation by the time of the lecture. Decide how you would go about analyzing the salary implications of the two career decisions that Sanjay Thomas faces. |
| 14 | Estimation and Mis-estimation | |
| 15 | Ontario Gateway Case | Read the Ontario Gateway Case at the end of Chapter 5. Perform the case analysis modeling assignment for the Ontario Gateway Case described at the end of the case. HAND IN a brief analysis of your conclusions with appropriate but concise back up to support your recommendations. |
| 16 | Regression I | |
| 17 | Regression II | Read the two regression cases entitled "Predicting Heating Oil Consumption at OILPLUS" and "Executive Compensation" at the end of Chapter 6. Perform the analyses outlined at the end of each case and come to class prepared to discuss your findings. |
| 18 | Regression III | Read the case "The Construction Department at Croq'Pain" (at the end of Chapter 6.) Perform the analyses outlined at the end of the case and come to class prepared to discuss your findings. |
| 19 | Communication Exercise | There will be a case given to teams to analyze and PRESENT in class. Instructions for this exercise will be available shortly. |
| 20 | Summary | |
| 21 | Final Exam |
